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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19
PostPosted: July 14th, 2020, 7:07 pm 
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Joined: July 17th, 2016, 6:24 am
Posts: 1099
Jim,

Have you ever been to an emergency room?
They are always full, always. Every where. That’s how hospitals work.

There are several reports about coronavirus cases in hospitals. These are not the people joining hospitals due to coronavirus, but Coronavirus detected after the admission for regular medical procedures.

BTW, coronavirus is not COVID-19.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19
PostPosted: July 14th, 2020, 7:24 pm 
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Joined: January 14th, 2015, 11:15 pm
Posts: 499
The hospital I go for my infusions is small but a few months ago, they re-purposed the infusion ward to be ready for possible virus patients. For a couple of months, the infusion ward operated out of a large meeting room. It was obviously not ideal, but it did the job. At my last set of infusions, we were back in the old ward and fortunately, it had proven to be not necessary for virus patients.

From what I can tell, the sizing of your emergency room ward or virus ward is a bit like sizing the wattage of your amplifier. You build for the expected load. All is well until you exceed the expected load and the amplifier distorts. If your ward or amplifier is big enough, there are not problems. If it is not big enough, then you have huge problems.

ray


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19
PostPosted: July 14th, 2020, 7:32 pm 
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Joined: July 17th, 2016, 6:24 am
Posts: 1099
Exactly Ray.

If the hospital 10 people in the emergency treatment at peak, they don’t build 30 build facility.

The reporters act as of the sky is falling because emergency room is filled. They are good at creating panic.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19
PostPosted: July 15th, 2020, 2:02 pm 
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Joined: March 2nd, 2013, 2:43 pm
Posts: 216
Location: Potomac, MD
Shashi,

When you say coronavirus is not COVID19 what do you mean? I have seen these terms used together universally.
See for example
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19
PostPosted: July 15th, 2020, 2:47 pm 
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Joined: February 28th, 2013, 1:19 pm
Posts: 914
Not Shashi, but a coronavirus is a class of viruses, the many of the viruses causing the common cold are coronaviruses.
Covid-19 is a specific coronavirus.

It is like saying "cat" when you mean tiger. A tiger is a cat. A domestic cat is a cat. If you are talking about detecting "cats" exposure in the population, then you are going to find alot of people exposed to cats. However, it is reasonable to assume if someone comes in the hospital with a bloody stump where an arm or leg once was and claiming they were attacked by a cat, it is likely to be something considerably larger and dangerous, like a tiger. If your community is overrun by man eating tigers, then you have a bit of a problem.

I am sure that any testing developed for detecting COVID-19 by our medical professionals and scientific community is is going to be more specific than just identifying generic coronavirus exposure (i.e. common cold). It would be a useless test otherwise.

David


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19
PostPosted: July 15th, 2020, 4:36 pm 
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Joined: July 17th, 2016, 6:24 am
Posts: 1099
dberning wrote:
Shashi,

When you say coronavirus is not COVID19 what do you mean? I have seen these terms used together universally.
See for example
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/


David,

Coronavirus is a large class of viruses, they are largely not dangerous. Some result in cold.

COVID-19 is a strain of coronavirus detected first time in humans in late 2019. COVID-19 is very dangerous.

Both names are interchangeably in the media to create panic. It is expected about 20% of the population will have coronavirus anti-bodies, which means they were infected by coronavirus sometime in the past. Hospitals are doing anti-body test on every patient and reporting the numbers. Media presents these numbers as active COVID-19 infections.

It is more dangerous to have 100 people with active COVID-19 infection in a city than having 100,000 people with coronavirus anti-bodies.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19
PostPosted: July 15th, 2020, 6:07 pm 
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Joined: February 28th, 2013, 1:19 pm
Posts: 914
Shashi,

Both names are NOT used to create panic. It is just that "coronavirus" is easier for many to relate to than "COVID-19". It was also used in the early days of the spread of the virus before the more correct "COVID-19" identifier was used. It kind of stuck with people (much to the chagrin of Cervecería Modelo, who makes "Corona" beer).

I suspect that any of the tests for COVID-19 infection is looking at the presence of anti-bodies or similar markers. The fact one has anti-bodies means you were infected. Period. You may have been asymptomatic, had a mild case, or have a serious immune system response that puts you in the hospital. The problem is that someone who is infected can transmit the virus before exhibiting symptoms. You can be completely asymptomatic, not even aware that you are infected, and still be able to transmit the virus to others. Even "recovered" COVID-19 patients can still shed virus. This is the danger of this virus, it is so easy to pass around unknowingly, and by the time you realize you are getting ill, you have already likely passed it to others. Most people will not even get ill, but someone may have a severe immune system overreaction that puts them in the hospital or the grave.

Testing is a problem. In the hardest hit areas like Florida, I have been reading accounts of people who suspect they are sick and cannot get a test at a clinic, where the first open appointment is in a week or two, who are denied a test because they do not exhibit enough of the symptoms, and even if tested do not get back results for several days after the test. This means people who are sick are walking around (hopefully self-isolating as a precaution to their family) not knowing if they are ill with COVID-19 or something else. I have also read that some people are being coded with bronchitis because an initial test comes back negative (there is a much higher percentage of false negatives, from what I have read around 25%), sent to the non-COVID-19 ER ward, and then discharged back into the community with antibiotics, which are useless against COVID-19. This puts anyone in the regular ER ward at risk. Yes this is anecdotal, but it reflects the conditions that the hardest hit communities are facing. This also suggests that there are far more people who actually have COVID-19 than shows up in the statistics.

I was listening this morning to Morning Edition, and they had someone on who said that in order for us to be in a position of opening up the community, we need to be testing at a rate of 3 to 4 million tests per day. And for test results to be quickly known. In fact, that is the new government goal for September as a marker to be able to open up the schools and the rest of the economy. Right now, nationwide, we are doing around 1 million tests per day. And for many cases, the wait time on results is a week or more. Also, without extensive contact tracing, you don't know if you even had been exposed to someone with COVID-19. The countries who are on top of this are doing both extensive testing and contact tracing. We are terribly behind the curve, unprepared, and vulnerable.

People need to start caring about others and doing what it takes to prevent transmission. It is not panic, but vigilance. You wear a mask not to protect you, but to protect anyone around you. You practice social distancing to limit transmission for the same reason. You limit your risk of exposing yourself to others, i.e., no partying, gathering in groups, etc. Those are the best tools we have right now until more extensive testing, contact tracing, and hope for a vaccine.

David


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19
PostPosted: July 15th, 2020, 6:26 pm 
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Joined: July 17th, 2016, 6:24 am
Posts: 1099
David,

I statement is based on my observations.

I will bet a dinner, this virus will magically disappear on Nov 4th, unless SCOTUS rules against mail-in ballot voting for ALL before then.

On the subject of anti-body results, we have known Coronavirus infections since mid-1960s.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19
PostPosted: July 15th, 2020, 7:19 pm 
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Joined: February 28th, 2013, 3:31 pm
Posts: 363
I'll take that bet! It will have to be carry out though. Covid, aka The Coronavirus will be active in some location here in the US in November. Possibly, much of the country.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19
PostPosted: July 15th, 2020, 7:48 pm 
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Joined: January 14th, 2015, 11:15 pm
Posts: 499
I would also take that dinner bet, though it would be difficult to collect in Australia.

The virus exists in virtually all countries of the world. Some have managed to contain it or reduce numbers of cases and deaths. Others are just starting to experience the surge. Even with severe travel restrictions and a reduction of the number of virus cases to close to zero, outbreaks can occur as has happened in Australia.

If you think of the USA, the states are at different stages and in California, the second wave has started. Fortunately, there is much greater experience and knowledge gained in the past few months that helps deal with the further outbreaks and reducing the death rate and severity of ICU patient illnesses. Testing and tracing procedures are much improved.

I don't think the USA will emerge from the effects of the virus until an effective vaccine is distributed. The virus does not care about politics.

ray


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